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Robust and Consistent Estimation of Generators in Credit Risk. (arXiv:1702.08867v1 [q-fin.RM])

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Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios, one needs to compute the TPM for a smaller time interval. In the context of continuous time Markov chains (CTMC) several deterministic and statistical algorithms have been proposed to estimate the generator matrix. We focus on the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm by \cite{BladtSorensen2005} for a CTMC with an absorbing state for such estimation.

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